AI+5G digital new infrastructure, 2020 business show industry top ten conjectures

Under the tide of new digital infrastructure and the halo of AI+5G application, the commercial display industry is undergoing a historic industry transition. This trend determines that there will be more "innovations" and "achievements" in 2020.

1. Will the mainstream size be upgraded?

The essence of quotient is "public display". The vast majority of quotient applications are known as "big screen". The "big business display" market represented by large-size liquid crystal displays continues to ferment in 2019. Will this trend continue in 2020?

From the perspective of LCD display, 80+ inches will double in 2019, laying the foundation for an era of large-scale application of LCD. But, after all, depending on the glass substrate technology of liquid crystal display, "big" on the direction of "technical resistance" is obvious. Especially in the LCD panel companies have said that the future will not invest in new production lines, generation line upgrade trend stopped, LCD can be bigger?

Liquid crystal also is in future "big" competition, pause step temporarily. In its place is a new vision of the mini-led screen: how much "economy" the 100-inch + inch market can offer the industry, driven by the increasing sophistication of the massive transfer process, with the ever-decreasing price of the small-spacing led screen.

Projection and large LED screens, which "rely on highlighting or splicing", have few display size limits. But for a few "affordable displays" outside high-end engineering, the popularity of the "big picture" must be built on "low prices." The success of the 85-inch LCD in 2019 has been linked to huge cost discounting over the past two years.

Therefore, the small spacing LED really in the commercial display "mass affordable" shipment, must come from the price drop. At present, P2.0 products have been gradually popularized, because the cost per square meter has been greatly reduced. However, better products, such as P1.0 products, still cost as much as 30,000 yuan per unit or even 100,000 yuan per unit, which obviously cannot meet the "demand for market popularization".

In such products, the massive transfer technology can not only enhance the performance of the product, but also increase the addition of new packaging structures such as COB, improve the manufacturing efficiency, greatly reduce the cost, and improve the display experience. And low cost will lead to application popularization, which will lead to the revolution of large size quotient application.

Therefore, whether the mainstream size of the commercial display market can be larger in 2020 depends on whether the technology, especially the cost technology, can be broken through.

The price war will continue

Predictions of the end of the price war in the commercial sector in the past five years have been met with a slap in the face -- the price war in 2020 has no end in sight.

The price war of LCDS, large LED screens and engineering projections in 2019 has not really brought "big enough growth". This is reflected in the sharp decline in the growth rate of the comstock market -- and even whether the decline in the growth rate presses the price war in the market, or whether the price war fails to reach the expected bottom line and hinders the growth rate indicator, has become the topic.

However, no matter which factor is dominant, it is an indisputable consensus that the supply side of commercial market is in relative surplus from quantity to quality. This consensus determines that the price war in the market will not end in the short term, and there will even be a higher "climax" .Further price declines can be expected in 2020.

The "application overlap" in the quotient market has reached the historical peak. The large size of LCD technology, the small spacing of hd and color TV, and the application of projection display products, in the 80-150 inch market formed a high degree of overlap. And all three technologies are experiencing "downturns" in product costs. This makes "rival product" technology market competition unprecedented fierce. "Price stability" within a single display technology category almost fails under competitive product challenges.

Of course, there are many other factors supporting the industry price war. Small and medium-sized brands, for example, are being squeezed by a stronger "centralised" market process. Alternatively, the absence of a price war for downstream end products does not necessarily prevent a price war between upstream suppliers. Under the pressure of price transmission, even if "price war cannot drive the growth of scale", in 2020, under the pressure of competing products and upstream industries, PID enterprises will be forced to struggle in the price war vortex for at least another 10 months.

3. Growth is hard to recover

The growth rate of commercial display industry from over 30% in 2018 to less than 7% in 2019 is a typical case of falling into the "growth trap". Under the background of low growth base in 2019, whether high-speed growth can be restored in 2020 has become the most concerned proposition of the commercial display industry.

The decline in the growth rate of the business display industry in 2019 has structural factors, such as the policy market in the education market, the dumb fire in the elevator advertising machine market, and the return to rationality in the new retail market. There are also macro factors, such as a slowdown in domestic consumption and a 20-year low in GDP growth. There are more factors where expected growth fails to appear -- such as AI+5G's commercial demand is still in the "future".

On the other hand, positive industry factors are also gathering, and they are fundamental "big opportunities" : this is the industry tuyere of AI+5G.2019 will be the first year of 5G implementation, and 2020 will definitely be the beginning of the construction year and application implementation. If 5G application can emerge a new commercial hot style, it is eager to drive the business display concept out of a "new growth market".

Whether the growth rate of the commercial display industry will remain below 10% in the next three years or return to the era of high double-digit growth depends on whether 5G applications can bring the new hot style scenario "in line with the commercial display industry". In 2020, it's a possibility. Moreover, since the total size of the existing commercial display market is "not high base", a social application of hot style can bring "qualitative change of growth" to the commercial display market.

In other words, "innovation and breakthrough of applied technology" is the key to judge the growth trend of commercial display industry in the future. Applied technology innovation is already having more impact on the industry than display technology itself: this is a major shift in the commercial display industry under the new digital infrastructure concept.

4.Mini-led benchmarking application is coming

In 2019, the core of mini-led consists of two parts: 1. Great progress; 2. The landing effect is not obvious.-- I'm afraid 2020 is the year to see the launch of products with significant market share.

After two years of product introduction, mini-led small-spacing screen should also enter the "demonstration" application stage. And with P0.38 spacing and above, LED screens can achieve 4K displays of 75 inches or more, or 8K displays of 150 inches or more, for the first time. This will go directly to the mainstream use of large-sized LCD TVS and projectors: this 75-200 inch space is currently needed for more than 10 million screens in domestic homes and businesses.

Moreover, the application of mini-led large screen in the business display field and the ultra-hd market of 75-200 inches will also become a new benchmark for the upgrade of "further high quality and high experience" in the business display industry in 2020.

5. Market supply is more concentrated

In 2019, the survival of small and medium-sized brands in the commercial display market deteriorated further: less than 7 percent of the industry's growth, especially the precipitous drop in elevator advertising screens, left many small and medium-sized brands short of cash. In 2020, the trend is expected to be difficult to improve, and may even intensify.

In terms of market growth, it will be difficult for the industry to break through double digits in 2020.To keep increments low means competition for stocks. It means economies of scale. This is obviously not conducive to the survival of small and medium-sized brands.

From the changes of market application scenarios, more and more business display is relying on intelligent ecology, and even developing into cloud service system of large-scale networked applications. This is obviously different from the growth direction of "single-screen independent" applications, but more needs the scale and strength of the brand. The efforts of large brands to shift to operational services are a blow to small and medium-sized practitioners. In the era of 5G+AI, PID prefers the market where the strong are constant and strong.

From the perspective of technological innovation, the innovation of commercial display industry has entered the deep water zone. Mini-led or capacitive touch LCD, or high-brightness laser projector, such products have technological breakthroughs, market breakthroughs are "high-end." Technology is becoming less friendly to smaller brands. Meanwhile, in terms of application technology, AI intelligence is the core and ecological industrial system, which is not conducive to small and medium-sized brands.

From the perspective of market increment, the growth of high-end market is obviously higher: for example, the market growth of interactive tablet is almost always 85+ inch screen. Even if the p2.0-p2.5 mid - and low-end small spacing LED screens achieve a new peak growth rate in 2019, it is because of the "rapid price war", which opens up some "low value, low level application market" -- this mode cannot be sustained for a long time.

In 2020, the trend of the business demonstration industry is to further centralize the market -- smes need to "explore new application scenarios" more than big brands for their survival.

Are sensors the key to innovation?

Where is the innovation direction of quotient application? In the context of a significant slowdown in industry growth, this has become a top concern for all manufacturers.

From the perspective of the market in 2019, the biggest decline of the app is the small screen represented by the "elevator advertising screen", while the fastest growth is the small and medium screen of "face swipe payment" and "self-checkout". The biggest difference between the two is not in display products, but in the proliferation of devices with sensors such as "cameras and touch screens".

The same thing is happening in the big-screen display market: 85+ inch LCD interactive products are growing strongly in both the education and business markets; Interactive small-spacing LED screens have also become one of the fastest growing segments in the 100+ inch commercial market. Retail scene market voice recognition products also began to enter the market.

New features beyond display, and in conjunction with display -- from intelligence, qr codes and cloud interaction, to machine hearing, machine vision and touch screens -- have changed the value experience of business display products at the edge of new technologies. The growth of these directions is very prominent in 2019, and the expansion of corresponding application scenarios in 2020 will definitely further drive the growth of the commercial display market of "sensor + display".

It is the industry consensus that more innovation in 2020 will come from the "application side". Innovation in sensor products can provide a variety of differentiated experiences. For example, some fitness places combine floor displays with pressure sensors to create interesting interactive experiences. The fee-paying parking lot USES the combination of machine vision and display system to construct the VIP rapid passing ability; Intelligent property management combines business demonstration and identity recognition to build an intelligent service system from the community to the building.

In short, PID cannot only means "display", the value of the application needs to be three-dimensional. This is the future business show can continue to make bigger and stronger key.

7.5g + product is available

2019 is the first year for 5G commercial use.2020 is bound to be the first burst of 5G applications. It is only a matter of time before 5G commercial display products emerge. Product innovations are possible, including new 5G displays, 5G upgrade modules for existing screens, and commercial display boxes for 5G technology. Among them, the "Internet of things" business display system directly integrating 5G communication functions and identification Numbers is considered as one of the important application innovation directions. Relying on 5G's highly reliable communication and supported by high bandwidth and real-time, 5G business display will create new values for the market of education, commerce, retail, conference, security and even command center. Such products are especially suitable for "commercial mobile and rental application scenarios".

In 2020, China Unicom will realize the continuous coverage of the 5G network in 300 local cities. Similar targets have been proposed for other carriers. The industry is expected to invest 0.9 trillion yuan in 5G in 2020.5G will be upgraded from "solve whether or not" in 2019 to "solve the coverage of regional applications". This will provide a solid foundation for the innovation of 5G scenarios in the commercial market.

The big difference between 5G and previous generations of communications networks: the core application upgrades for 5G will be more for commercial scenarios than for the absolute dominance of personal applications. This further strengthens the industry's confidence in 5G applications. In particular, the combination of 5G application and AI big data technology will form a good resonance and jointly create a new business format and application value.

In 2020, 5G technology will be further implemented and AI industry will be further mature, which will obviously continue to expand the market and upgrade products.More 5G+ commercial display landing is inevitable.

8.AR explores new business models

In 2019, the virtual reality industry's GDP exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time. Among them, the application of education industry is an important business display scene. But VR education, with headsets and other headsets at its core, now has a huge problem: if VR headsets become popular as consumer products, it may be possible to provide only VR interfaces in classrooms, rather than standard devices -- just as students buy their own backpacks and textbooks.

Therefore, in fact, commercial display enterprises have limited interest in VR -- virtual reality opportunities in commercial display market should start from AR and eventually develop into MR. That is to say, the "scene design" of shop-display in the virtual reality industry should not be a "personal product", but should always adhere to the characteristics of "public product".

AR's augmented reality design surpasses VR in terms of product, scene, content and application complexity. And has the very strong special characteristic. These systems are similar to those used in ready player one. Such product complexity makes it likely to be characterized by public use. In particular, the combination of "digital environment" technology and AR is more than a family or an individual can afford.

However, for the commercial display industry, what AR can do is still unknown: its application is limited to the sales environment of a few sales offices and a few teaching experiments in schools. In 2020, will AR quotient break through the early exploration stage and form the application of exemplar and hot style in the core application mode?

From the perspective of technology reserve, the application of AR was restricted by communication technology as well as AI technology.5G+AI is the basic technology for AR industry development. By 2020, this foundation will be even stronger. This allows the industry to "imagine" some new development stages of AR business demonstration, enabling the industry to enter a new period dominated by business model creation from technical reserve.

9. Splicing a large screen will be seamless

Why does the growth rate of liquid crystal splicing decline in 2019?The answer comes from two parts: 1. Large-size single-screen LCD display products replace a few splicing applications of 2*2 and below structures; 2.2. Small-spacing LED replaces many high-end ultra-narrow gap LCD splicing applications.

Starting in 2019, a new round of price drops for small-spacing leds have begun to pose challenges in the market for cheap LCD splicing. This is the key structural factor for the decline in the growth rate of liquid crystal Mosaic market. But in the high-end application market, DLP Mosaic, LCD, small spacing LED screen is already "equal" competition pattern. In particular, the COB 0.x LED large-screen product with massive transfer technology is giving birth to a new wave of substitution in the industry.2019 is the first year of 0.x small spacing LED, and 2020 must be the year of energy release.

Therefore, it can be expected that LED with small spacing in the splicing market will continue to grow at a high speed in 2020, thus releasing greater energy for "seamless" splicing display market. What is the future of quotient splicing large screen? The fusion of engineering projection shows that LED products with special creative design value and small spacing have a tendency to take all under the decreasing cost and narrowing gap -- the common feature of both is "seamless"!

10. Terminal and cloud king explosion

"Business display is the terminal, but business display service is the cloud." The industry trend for 2019 is increasingly clear. Demand for display products that run completely independently of the network and cloud is going to zero. With the accelerated implementation of 5G+AI in 2020, the combination of "terminal + cloud" is becoming the "king explosion" in the hands of commercial display enterprises.

More than half of the top participating brands in the business display industry either independently provide cloud services or jointly provide cloud services with ecological partners.It has become a new trend in the commercial display industry to purchase solutions in the form of certain scene functions.For example, in the smart parking lot, the integration of the information system from member management, payment functions to big data analysis becomes the favorite of purchasers: the information application of "one-stop packaging" can adapt to the constraints of "insufficient personnel and technical level" and "repeated construction cost of maintenance and background support power" in many scenarios.

"The core of selling solutions by scene is to break the shackle of a single display unit and become a comprehensive value provider from soft to hard, from end to cloud, from self to ecology."Such a shift, from the business point of view, the core is "smart terminal close to the cloud."

"The value of quotient is in the data and the manipulation of the data."In the future pattern of information technology, "cloud" is the carrier of data and cloud computing is the operating platform of data.From this point of view, the future of the large commercial enterprises are bound to be divided: some become solution and service providers, some become professional single component suppliers.

In 2020, with technological progress, cost progress, competitive product competition, especially 5G+AI as the core, the business display industry will continue to embrace the tide of "structural" and "supply-side" changes -- and the trend of the business display industry to further embrace innovation in 2020 will not be affected no matter how big or small the market growth is.This is determined by the new meaning of quotient products as an essential part of the new digital infrastructure.We'll be closer to the ubiquitous screen in 2020.